
Iranian attacks damaged trains at QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan LNG terminal with a combined capacity of 12.8 million tonnes a year. Repairs could take three to five years, and planned expansions are likely to be delayed, widening the spread between US and European LNG prices to 2029.
A long-lasting loss of Qatari supply supports global LNG prices and keeps US export demand strong, which pulls on domestic US gas prices.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.