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European benchmark gas futures surged as much as 48% after Qatar halted LNG production, closing 22% higher. Traders are uncertain how long the fighting will last after President Trump vowed to do whatever it takes.
The uncertain duration of the Qatar outage keeps a risk premium in global gas prices and raises the cost of energy used in fertilizer and feed manufacturing.
bloomberg.comPriscila Azevedo RochaMar 3, 2026After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
