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Nymex diesel futures rose to about $2.35 per gallon, with US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe diesel cracks widening sharply. Causes cited include sanctions on Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil, OPEC+ constraints and attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Widening diesel cracks signal tight supply that could keep diesel and freight costs elevated into winter, squeezing feed logistics margins.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.