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ICE low-sulfur gasoil futures spiked on November 26 after Russia fired a record number of drones into Ukraine and Israel struck Beirut. Prices had earlier reached a six-week high before weak diesel demand pushed them lower.
Geopolitical escalation lifts crude and distillate prices, raising freight and fertilizer costs for feed producers, though the article notes weak fundamentals cap sustained gains.
energyintel.comAuthors Kerry Preston, London Cristina Haus, New York Editor Cristina HausNov 27, 2024After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
