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Energy Intelligence says OPEC+ extended supply cuts into the second quarter with near-perfect compliance, giving it firm control of market balances. Brent near $90 includes an estimated political premium of at least $5 per barrel tied to Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Iran risks.
OPEC+ control and a geopolitical premium keep crude elevated, which raises diesel and fertilizer costs and supports biofuel-linked oil demand.
energyintel.comAuthor John van Schaik, New York Editor Gary PeachApr 16, 2024After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
