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Global jet fuel and diesel benchmark ICE low-sulfur gasoil futures rose to a one-month high of almost $710 per metric ton in early Friday trade. The move followed new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil and EU guidance on enforcing a ban on fuels made from Russian crude early next year.
The two companies exported over 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude last year, mainly to China and India.
Losing Rosneft and Lukoil barrels tightens crude and diesel supply, especially for India's export refiners that feed European diesel demand. This points to higher diesel and crude prices.
energyintel.comAuthors Kerry Preston, London Cristina Haus, New York Freddie Yap, Singapore Editor Cristina HausOct 24, 2025After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
