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Energy Intelligence expects jet fuel and diesel prices to climb in coming months as expensive natural gas limits middle-distillate output. Gas is needed to desulfurize diesel, and EU sanctions on Russian product add to supply constraints.
Expensive gas and sanctions can cut refinery diesel supply, lifting distillate prices and pushing up freight and fertiliser-related costs. Gas-linked supply stress also feeds into nitrogen fertiliser prices.
energyintel.comAuthor John van Schaik, New York Editor Cristina HausAug 26, 2022After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
