Oil settles $1 up, war risk premium outweighs ample US stocks

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Oct 22, 2024Oil settles up 2% as Middle East war rages and supplies tighten-4.8%
• Oct 4, 2024Oil settles up, biggest weekly gains in over a year on Middle East war risk | Reuters+2.9%
• Jul 29, 2026Middle East strikes and shrinking US crude stocks send oil prices up-4.4%
• May 28, 2019Brent oil rises above $70 as OPEC cuts, US sanctions outweigh trade war worries-8.9%
• Dec 20, 2023Oil settles up on Red Sea tensions; gains capped by US stock builds | Reuters+1.3%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Oct 22, 2024Oil settles up 2% as Middle East war rages and supplies tighten-2.9%
• Oct 4, 2024Oil settles up, biggest weekly gains in over a year on Middle East war risk | Reuters+2.4%
• Jul 29, 2026Middle East strikes and shrinking US crude stocks send oil prices up-2.3%
• May 28, 2019Brent oil rises above $70 as OPEC cuts, US sanctions outweigh trade war worries-9.0%
• Dec 20, 2023Oil settles up on Red Sea tensions; gains capped by US stock builds | Reuters+1.0%