Oil settles up 2% as Middle East war rages and supplies tighten

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Oct 4, 2024Oil settles up, biggest weekly gains in over a year on Middle East war risk | Reuters+2.9%
• Jul 23, 2026Oil settles over $100 as Houthi attacks intensify Middle East supply risks | Reuters-7.9%
• Mar 25, 2026Oil settles up nearly 6% as investors fear further Middle East escalation | Reuters+10.2%
• Mar 1, 2026Oil and gas prices surge as Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern output | Reuters+35.6%
• Jul 26, 2018Factbox: Risks to Middle East oil and gas shipping routes-3.0%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Oct 4, 2024Oil settles up, biggest weekly gains in over a year on Middle East war risk | Reuters+2.4%
• Jul 23, 2026Oil settles over $100 as Houthi attacks intensify Middle East supply risks | Reuters-9.5%
• Mar 25, 2026Oil settles up nearly 6% as investors fear further Middle East escalation | Reuters+15.0%
• Mar 1, 2026Oil and gas prices surge as Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern output | Reuters+31.0%
• Jul 26, 2018Factbox: Risks to Middle East oil and gas shipping routes-0.7%