Middle East strikes and shrinking US crude stocks send oil prices up

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Oct 3, 2024Crude oil prices today: WTI rises as Biden comments on Middle East risk+3.3%
• Jul 29, 2026Oil jumps 7% on escalating Middle East airstrikes-2.3%
• Jun 20, 2019Middle East Clashes Send Oil Sharply Higher+7.0%
• Aug 31, 2026Brent nears $90 after US-Iran strikes: Why is crude oil price rising?+10.8%
• Jul 26, 2018Factbox: Risks to Middle East oil and gas shipping routes-0.7%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Oct 3, 2024Crude oil prices today: WTI rises as Biden comments on Middle East risk+4.4%
• Jul 29, 2026Oil jumps 7% on escalating Middle East airstrikes-4.4%
• Jun 20, 2019Middle East Clashes Send Oil Sharply Higher+10.2%
• Aug 31, 2026Brent nears $90 after US-Iran strikes: Why is crude oil price rising?+9.6%
• Jul 26, 2018Factbox: Risks to Middle East oil and gas shipping routes-3.0%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jul 30, 2026Diesel Prices Climb Over Middle East Conflict and Refinery Attacks - WSJ-13.4%
• Oct 1, 2026Oil prices rise as U.S. reportedly prepares to send third carrier to Mideast-3.7%
• Mar 1, 2026Oil prices are rising sharply after US and Israeli attacks | AP News+36.4%
• Apr 2, 2026Oil prices jump and shares drop after Trump threatens more Iran strikes-2.9%
• Mar 8, 2026Oil prices surge 20% as expanding US-Israeli war with Iran cuts supplies from Mideast - CNA+10.4%