
Crude oil rose more than $1 a barrel on Monday after the U.S. launched strikes on Iran's Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz, targeting missile launchers. Iran warned of retaliation, adding to concerns about supply disruption.
Brent was near $89.18 and WTI near $84.32.
Strikes near the key shipping chokepoint raise energy and freight costs for feed ingredient supply chains. Retaliation risk could push prices higher.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.