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Israel's strikes against Iran on Thursday night sent oil prices sharply higher, with Brent trading at its highest level since early April. Traders are pricing in the risk that the conflict could spread to regional oil production and transport infrastructure.
Analysts said the attacks had not yet affected actual oil market fundamentals.
The price jump reflects risk premium rather than a physical supply loss, but it raises crude and diesel costs for feed producers. Any strike on tankers, pipelines or export facilities would tighten supply and push prices higher.
axios.comBen GemanJun 13, 2025After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Traders priced in risk of the conflict spreading to regional oil production and transport infrastructure, lifting Brent to its highest since early April.
Brent reached its highest since early April as traders priced in risk of the conflict spreading to regional oil production and transport.
Traders priced in the risk of conflict spreading to regional oil production and transport after the strikes, lifting crude.
Brent reached its highest since early April as traders priced in the risk to regional production and transport.
Traders priced in the risk that the conflict could spread to oil production and transport infrastructure, even though fundamentals were not yet affected.
