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Israel launched preemptive airstrikes on targets across Iran, including Tehran, and declared a state of emergency as it awaited an Iranian response. Crude futures rose about 6% in early trading, and the US said it was not involved in the strikes.
The strikes raise the risk of disruption to Middle East oil exports, which lifts crude and diesel prices and raises input costs for feed production and transport. Analysts noted Iran's oil infrastructure appeared unaffected, so the spike may fade if escalation stays limited.
spglobal.comChristopher VanmoessnerJun 13, 2025After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Early-session report of crude up about 6% on Israel's preemptive strike describes the start of the move.
Early crude gains of about 6% followed Israel's preemptive strikes, showing the initial risk-premium jump.
Crude rose about 6% in early trading on Israel's preemptive strikes.
