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European oil product cracks and flat prices rose further after Israel-Iran strikes extended to energy infrastructure, including Israel's Haifa refinery and an Iranian fuel depot. Crude jumped above $4 a barrel after a major Israeli strike on June 13, then Dated Brent eased to $71 a barrel on June 16.
Attacks on refining and storage raise regional product supply risk, supporting diesel and distillate prices that feed into freight and processing costs for feed producers.
spglobal.comJun 16, 2025After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Strikes extending to energy infrastructure like the Haifa refinery pushed product cracks and prices higher, adding to the rally mid-week.
Strikes extended to energy infrastructure by June 16, pushing product cracks and prices higher into the end of the window.
