
Brent crude traded at $97.64 and WTI at $93.01 on September 8 after Iran threatened to strike energy assets in West Asia following recent US attacks on Iranian targets. Exchanges of threats between Iranian and US officials over tanker and facility strikes add to the risk premium.
Higher crude raises diesel and fertilizer costs and biofuel economics, which can lift vegetable oil and corn prices. Escalation in the Gulf is a key upside risk for energy-linked feed input costs.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.