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Front-month Brent and WTI crude futures rose above $100 per barrel after Russian forces further invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Brent settled near $115/b and WTI above $110/b by March 2, and Brent's intraday range that day was about $8.23/b, nearly four times the 2021 average.
New sanctions on Russia added to the upward pressure.
A sudden supply-risk premium on crude lifts diesel and fuel costs for feed mills and grain haulage, and can pull up soybean oil and other energy-linked feed inputs. Higher energy prices also raise the cost of fertilizer and transport across the feed chain.
eia.govMar 4, 2022After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
EIA noted Brent settled near $115 by March 2 with unusually high intraday volatility driven by new sanctions on Russia.
