Geopolitical developments contribute to elevated diesel prices - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Mar 7, 2023EU’s ban on diesel fuel from Russia shifts trade patterns - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)-4.2%
• Mar 4, 2022Crude oil prices rise above $100 per barrel after Russia’s further invasion into Ukraine - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)-5.5%
• Jan 17, 2025International Diesel Prices Surge After U.S. Sanctions on Russia | OilPrice.com-3.6%
• Jan 31, 2023US Diesel Supply Risks in the Era of Energy Security and Transition - Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA | CGEP %-10.4%
• Oct 28, 2025The Commodities Feed: Sanction concerns boost diesel prices | ING THINK-1.4%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Mar 4, 2022Crude oil prices rise above $100 per barrel after Russia’s further invasion into Ukraine - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)-0.9%
• Jan 17, 2025International Diesel Prices Surge After U.S. Sanctions on Russia | OilPrice.com-4.1%
• Mar 2, 2026Diesel and Gasoline Prices Rise on Iran Strikes - TT+31.0%
• Oct 13, 2023Oil prices jump nearly 6% amid geopolitical tensions, post best day since April+6.4%
• Mar 25, 2024Oil prices rise amid worsening geopolitical outlook and tighter supply | The National+1.9%