Will diesel fuel prices go up with Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jan 17, 2025International Diesel Prices Surge After U.S. Sanctions on Russia | OilPrice.com-3.6%
• Jan 17, 2025Global diesel prices spike as US hits Russia with new sanctions-3.6%
• Mar 4, 2022Crude oil prices rise above $100 per barrel after Russia’s further invasion into Ukraine - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)-5.5%
• Jan 17, 2023DOE/EIA price drops; diesel futures up ahead of EU ban on Russian imports - FreightWaves+8.6%
• Oct 28, 2025Diesel Prices Jump on Russia Sanctions and Refinery Outages - Bloomberg-1.4%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 4, 2022Crude oil prices rise above $100 per barrel after Russia’s further invasion into Ukraine - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)-1.6%
• Mar 17, 2022The Invasion of Ukraine is Accelerating the Supercycle in Commodities | Goldman Sachs+21.1%
• Mar 21, 2022U.S. wheat, corn, soy rally on concerns about Ukraine-Russia fighting | Financial Post+10.3%
• Aug 7, 2023The Commodities Feed: Russia-Ukraine tensions add to oil supply risks | articles | ING THINK+0.5%
• Feb 18, 2026Oil settles up 4% on Iran-US tensions, Russia-Ukraine talks end without breakthrough | Reuters+5.1%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jan 17, 2025International Diesel Prices Surge After U.S. Sanctions on Russia | OilPrice.com-4.1%
• Mar 23, 2022How Russia's invasion of Ukraine rocked commodity markets-5.9%
• Mar 1, 2022Euro falls to lowest since June 2020 as Russia's invasion of Ukraine picks up+23.6%
• Jan 17, 2025Global diesel prices spike as US hits Russia with new sanctions-4.1%
• Mar 4, 2022Crude oil prices rise above $100 per barrel after Russia’s further invasion into Ukraine - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)-0.9%