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The DOE/EIA retail diesel price fell 2.5 cents to $4.524 a gallon, while CME diesel futures rose ahead of the Feb. 5 EU ban on Russian diesel imports.
Futures had risen seven straight sessions after a Jan. 4 low.
The looming EU ban on Russian diesel is tightening global distillate supply and supporting futures. Higher diesel costs raise transport and feed-milling expenses.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.