Diesel Prices Climb Over Middle East Conflict and Refinery Attacks

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jun 19, 2025Mideast conflict turbocharges diesel prices, squeezing Europe-6.7%
• Oct 3, 2024Oil jumps over $3 a barrel as Middle East conflict stokes supply worry | Reuters+4.4%
• Jun 13, 2025Diesel most exposed to Middle East conflict, US futures surge 8% | Reuters+15.6%
• Mar 4, 2026US diesel hits $4 per gallon as fuel costs rise amid escalating Middle East conflict | Reuters+6.1%
• Mar 17, 2026US average diesel prices cross $5 a gallon as Middle East War tests global economy | Reuters+6.6%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Oct 9, 2023Middle East conflict fuels rise in commodity prices | Reuters+7.4%
• Jun 19, 2025Mideast conflict turbocharges diesel prices, squeezing Europe-12.2%
• Oct 3, 2024Oil jumps over $3 a barrel as Middle East conflict stokes supply worry | Reuters+3.3%
• Jun 13, 2025Diesel most exposed to Middle East conflict, US futures surge 8% | Reuters+12.0%
• Sep 7, 2026Oil prices rise to six-week highs on worsening Middle East conflict | Reuters+12.0%