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Benchmark European ICE Low Sulphur Gasoil prices have risen nearly 15% since June 12, 2025 amid Middle East conflict. The rally builds on diesel strength in recent months driven by robust global demand and low inventories in Europe and the US.
Tight distillate supply and a war-driven risk premium lift diesel costs, raising fuel and freight expenses for feed transport and pushing crude-linked input costs higher.
reuters.comRon BoussoJun 19, 2025After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
