◂ Event Timeline

Mar 17, 2026GEOPOLITICSUS

US average diesel prices cross $5 a gallon as Middle East War tests global economy

US average retail diesel prices crossed $5 per gallon on Monday for only the second time ever, according to GasBuddy. The Middle East war is squeezing industrial fuel supplies.

WHY IT MATTERS

Retail diesel above $5 raises transport and processing costs for feed buyers and supports energy-linked commodity values. The effect on grain and meal prices is mainly indirect.

AFFECTSULSD / Diesel▲

SOURCE
reuters.comShariq KhanMar 17, 2026

Price reaction & history

ULSD / Diesel▲bullishSO FAR1d +4.5%5d +6.6%20d -5.4%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

Mar 4, 2026US diesel hits $4 per gallon as fuel costs rise amid escalating Middle East conflict | Reuters+6.1%
Mar 10, 2026Diesel markets, upended by Middle East conflict, threaten global economic slowdown | Reuters+11.4%
Jun 13, 2025Diesel most exposed to Middle East conflict, US futures surge 8% | Reuters+15.6%
Mar 7, 2026US pump prices surge as Iran war upends global energy supply | Reuters+10.4%
Mar 19, 2026Prices for oil, fuel cargoes smash record highs as Iran war chokes Middle East supply | Reuters-6.3%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

ULSD / Diesel DIESEL · GP ▸

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