Oil prices edged higher on Friday after Chinese refiners suspended exports of oil products beyond Hong Kong and Macau. A Wall Street Journal report that the US is sending more troops and carriers to the Middle East also weighed on sentiment, after Brent closed more than $4 higher on Thursday.
China's export halt removes product supply from global markets at a time of tight fuel availability, supporting crude and diesel prices and raising input costs for feed transport and processing.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Friday follow-through as Chinese refiners suspended product exports and US reinforcements weighed on sentiment, extending the rally after Thursday's gain.