Oil gains as market weighs Iran, Russia supply risks; dealmaking for Venezuela in focus

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Feb 13, 2023Oil edges higher as market weighs Russian supply cuts amid demand fears | Reuters-4.0%
• Oct 2, 2026Oil rises slightly as market weighs mixed supply signals | Reuters+7.5%
• Sep 16, 2019Oil surges as Saudi attack focuses market on supply risks+6.6%
• Mar 3, 2022Oil slides from decade-highs as Iran talks kindle supply hopes | Reuters-1.8%
• Mar 9, 2026Instant View: Oil surges 20% as Iran war fuels supply fears | Reuters+9.5%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Feb 13, 2023Oil edges higher as market weighs Russian supply cuts amid demand fears | Reuters-4.3%
• Oct 2, 2026Oil rises slightly as market weighs mixed supply signals | Reuters-1.5%
• Sep 16, 2019Oil surges as Saudi attack focuses market on supply risks+5.8%
• Mar 3, 2022Oil slides from decade-highs as Iran talks kindle supply hopes | Reuters-1.7%
• Mar 9, 2026Instant View: Oil surges 20% as Iran war fuels supply fears | Reuters+8.5%