
Brent futures rose as much as 19.5% intraday to $71.95 a barrel, the largest intraday gain since the 1991 Gulf War. WTI rose as much as 15.5% intraday after an attack on Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq and Khurais facilities cut output by 5.7 million barrels per day.
Aramco has not set a timeline for full output, with a source saying recovery could take weeks.
A multi-week outage of about 5.7 million barrels per day tightens global crude supply and keeps energy prices elevated. Higher diesel and energy costs squeeze feed milling and transport margins.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Details the 5.7 mb/d supply loss at Abqaiq and Khurais and the uncertain recovery timeline (weeks), which drove the supply-risk premium.
Reports the record intraday Brent gain on the Saudi outage, with no timeline for recovery.