Oil edges higher as market weighs Russian supply cuts amid demand fears

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Oct 2, 2026Oil rises slightly as market weighs mixed supply signals | Reuters-1.5%
• Jan 9, 2026Oil gains as market weighs Iran, Russia supply risks; dealmaking for Venezuela in focus | Reuters+2.4%
• Mar 17, 2022Oil surges 8% amid warnings of Russian supply shortages | Reuters+21.1%
• Dec 3, 2024Oil rises on fears about Lebanon, further OPEC+ supply cuts | Reuters+0.4%
• Mar 18, 2024Oil prices inch higher amid attacks on Russian energy facilities | Reuters-0.9%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Oct 2, 2026Oil rises slightly as market weighs mixed supply signals | Reuters+7.5%
• Jan 9, 2026Oil gains as market weighs Iran, Russia supply risks; dealmaking for Venezuela in focus | Reuters+3.7%
• Mar 17, 2022Oil surges 8% amid warnings of Russian supply shortages | Reuters+23.0%
• Dec 3, 2024Oil rises on fears about Lebanon, further OPEC+ supply cuts | Reuters+0.8%
• Mar 18, 2024Oil prices inch higher amid attacks on Russian energy facilities | Reuters-0.3%