
Oil prices climbed about 2% to a four-month high after Brent and WTI rose on lower crude exports from Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure also idled about 7% of Russian refining capacity in the first quarter.
Lower Gulf exports and refinery outages tighten crude and product supply, lifting energy costs for feed producers.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.