
Crude prices rose more than 1% to above $120 a barrel on March 25, 2022, after a missile attack hit an Aramco fuel distribution facility in Saudi Arabia. WTI ended 1.4% higher at $113.90, and both benchmarks posted their first weekly gains in three weeks.
Kazakhstan's CPC terminal partly resumed exports, and the EU deferred an embargo on Russian energy as members remained divided.
Attacks on Gulf fuel infrastructure and continued uncertainty over Russian supply keep crude and diesel costs elevated, which pushes up feed milling and transport expenses. Partial CPC resumption and the EU delay limit the upside, but the net price implication is bullish.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.