Oil tops $105/bbl after Russia attacks Ukraine

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Feb 24, 2022European gas prices soar and oil tops $105 after Russia attacks Ukraine+18.2%
• Mar 25, 2022Oil rises to over $120/bbl after attack on Saudi facilities | Reuters-11.4%
• Nov 14, 2025Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack | Reuters+1.5%
• Oct 23, 2025Putin defiant after Trump sanctions Russian oil companies over Ukraine | Reuters+4.1%
• Aug 21, 2025Oil rises 1% on stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, strong US demand | Reuters+1.0%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 25, 2022Oil rises to over $120/bbl after attack on Saudi facilities | Reuters-11.6%
• Nov 14, 2025Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack | Reuters+0.8%
• Oct 23, 2025Putin defiant after Trump sanctions Russian oil companies over Ukraine | Reuters+3.3%
• Aug 21, 2025Oil rises 1% on stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, strong US demand | Reuters+0.8%
• Aug 25, 2026Grain exports stall as Ukraine steps up attacks on Russia-0.0%