Market Talk | Diesel Futures Slide For Third Day Amid Geopolitical Tensions And Refinery Setbacks

After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.

• Feb 2, 2026NYMEX Overview: Futures Move Lower as Geopolitical Tensions Cool -- OPIS-8.6%
• Apr 8, 2026Big petrol and diesel price relief on the cards – Daily Investor-17.1%
• Jun 24, 2025NYMEX Overview : Petroleum Futures Continue to Sell Off Ahead of Midday -- OPIS+0.2%
• Mar 9, 2020The oil price war is on; what that means for buyers of diesel - FreightWaves-17.1%
• Aug 19, 2024No war for now brings another drop in benchmark diesel price - FreightWaves-0.7%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Feb 2, 2026NYMEX Overview: Futures Move Lower as Geopolitical Tensions Cool -- OPIS-3.1%
• Apr 2, 2018Oil falls as geopolitical anxiety 'comes racing out of the market'-4.1%
• Jun 20, 2025Diesel and Gas. The Energy Report 06/20/2025 - Market InsightsMarket Insights-13.2%
• Mar 9, 2026Oil Futures Fall As Market Looks for Shorter War - WSJ+9.5%
• Nov 19, 2021OIL FUTURES: Prices slide amid European lockdowns, stronger US dollar | S&P Global+0.4%

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Feb 2, 2026NYMEX Overview: Futures Move Lower as Geopolitical Tensions Cool -- OPIS-1.6%
• Oct 28, 2024Prompt Month Natural Gas Futures Sink 10% as Geopolitical Risks ‘Evaporate’ — MidDay Market Snapshot-3.1%
• Apr 2, 2018Oil falls as geopolitical anxiety 'comes racing out of the market'-4.4%
• Jun 20, 2025Diesel and Gas. The Energy Report 06/20/2025 - Market InsightsMarket Insights-12.7%
• Mar 9, 2026Oil Futures Fall As Market Looks for Shorter War - WSJ+8.5%