
Petroleum futures fell Monday as geopolitical tensions eased and talks between the U.S. and Iran progressed, with ULSD down more than 15 cents and WTI trading near $62 after a $3 loss. Natural gas also dropped about $1/MMBtu as some curtailments were lifted, and selling spread across commodities including agriculture.
Lower crude and energy prices reduce input costs for biofuels and fertilizer and weaken the energy-linked support for soybean oil and corn. Broad commodity selling suggests softer prices for feed ingredients near term.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
After 15 past bearish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -9.2% to +2.4%), and +4.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Petroleum futures fell as US-Iran talks progressed and tensions cooled, with selling spreading across commodities.
Reports of natural gas falling about $1/MMBtu on 2026-02-02 as curtailments were lifted point to a supply-side recovery, with easing geopolitical tension adding to broad commodity selling.