NYMEX petroleum futures sold off on June 24 as markets reacted to an Israel-Iran ceasefire announced the prior evening. WTI and Brent fell about $3 per barrel and gasoline and ULSD contracts also declined.
Lower crude and diesel values reduce energy input costs and may ease freight and fertilizer costs, a mildly bearish signal for feed-ingredient prices tied to energy.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
NYMEX WTI and Brent fell about $3/bbl on June 24 after the ceasefire announcement, directly driving the decline in the window.
Brent and WTI fell about $3/bbl on June 24 on the ceasefire, adding to the weekly decline.
NYMEX WTI and Brent fell about $3 on June 24 on the ceasefire, continuing the sell-off.