Crude futures were drifting lower on Friday and were set to end the week down about $4 a barrel, halting two weeks of gains. Traders were watching talks that could raise tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Reports suggested Iran and Oman were close to an agreement on shipping.
Easing Hormuz concerns lower crude and diesel costs, which reduces freight and processing expenses for feed. Any collapse in talks would reverse this pressure.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.