
Oil prices tumbled Monday after President Trump said the U.S. and Iran had productive talks and ordered a five-day halt on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. Brent fell nearly 11% to $99.94 a barrel after topping $112 on Friday, and WTI dropped more than 10% to $88.13.
The Strait of Hormuz's reopening timeline remained unclear.
Reopening uncertainty for the Strait of Hormuz and possible de-escalation both feed directly into crude and diesel prices, which drive feed-ingredient freight, fertilizer and energy costs for feed buyers. Price swings are likely to remain large while the conflict's outcome is unresolved.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.