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Energy markets were choppy but quiet on June 25 as the Israel-Iran ceasefire held and the crude risk premium faded. The API reported a gasoline build and diesel and crude draws, and the US president floated a sanctions change on Chinese purchases of Iranian oil.
Fading geopolitical risk premium lowers crude and diesel costs, while Chinese oil-sanction talk adds trade uncertainty that could affect energy demand and freight.
tacenergy.comJun 25, 2025After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 327 past geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Risk premium continued to fade as the ceasefire held on June 25, sustaining the removal of the geopolitical premium in crude.
The risk premium continued to fade as the ceasefire held, with possible sanctions relief on Chinese purchases of Iranian oil weighing on prices.
