EXCLUSIVE: OPEC+ set for another oil output quota hike despite Hormuz closure, sources say

After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.

• Jun 1, 2026OPEC+ announces symbolic oil output rise during Strait of Hormuz closure+2.9%
• Mar 2, 2026Forget OPEC+ output hike. Duration of Hormuz disruption is what matters | Reuters+31.0%
• Apr 6, 2026OPEC+ to hike crude output: Will it make a difference to oil prices? | Euronews-9.7%
• Apr 5, 2026OPEC+ agrees to boost oil output when Strait of Hormuz reopens | Reuters-9.7%
• May 3, 2026OPEC+ Agrees Symbolic Quota Hike as UAE Touts Oil Investment - Bloomberg-9.5%

After 327 past geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jun 28, 2026Oil settles up on US-Iran strikes; cautious hopes for shipping cap gains | Financial News+2.8%
• May 26, 2017OPEC cut unlikely to move U.S. diesel prices - FreightWaves-4.4%
• Jun 25, 2025Market Talk | Energy Markets Stabilize as Ceasefire Holds and Risk Premiums Fade+1.5%
• Mar 16, 2022Oil dips on Russia-Ukraine talks, U.S. inventory data+28.4%
• Mar 24, 2026Big drop in diesel futures Monday, but benchmark price rises again - FreightWaves+7.5%