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Analysts argue that the length of the Strait of Hormuz disruption matters more than the OPEC+ output hike. Tankers could move quickly once the fighting stops, and China is expected to trim crude imports from peak levels in coming months.
India is also expected to resume buying Russian crude.
If disruption is brief, supply concerns will ease and crude prices could fall back. Lower Chinese and Indian import demand also reduces upward pressure on prices.
reuters.comClyde RussellMar 2, 2026After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
