Oil settles up on US-Iran strikes; cautious hopes for shipping cap gains

After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.

• Nov 1, 2025Oil Rises on Reports US Plans to Strike OPEC Producer Venezuela-2.0%
• Aug 24, 2022Oil ends higher on U.S. response to Iran nuclear deal comments-3.8%
• Apr 1, 2026Gold set for worst month in more than 17 years as U.S. rate-cut hopes fade-6.6%
• Nov 30, 2020Opec set for annual meeting to discuss next phase of oil production policy | The National+1.5%
• Mar 9, 2026European nitrogen market rallies on gas price hike, Iran conflicts | S&P Global+8.5%

After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.

• Nov 1, 2025Oil Rises on Reports US Plans to Strike OPEC Producer Venezuela-2.4%
• Aug 24, 2022Oil ends higher on U.S. response to Iran nuclear deal comments-0.5%
• Nov 30, 2020Opec set for annual meeting to discuss next phase of oil production policy | The National+3.5%
• Jun 24, 2025What influences crude oil more? US bombs or Iran's silent allies-6.9%
• Aug 6, 2025Key Factors Shaping OPEC+ Decisions - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies-2.8%

After 327 past geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.0% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.9% to +7.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jun 1, 2026EXCLUSIVE: OPEC+ set for another oil output quota hike despite Hormuz closure, sources say+1.7%
• Jul 22, 2026U.S. refiners are ramping up diesel production - TT+0.6%
• Mar 16, 2022Oil dips on Russia-Ukraine talks, U.S. inventory data+28.4%
• May 26, 2017OPEC cut unlikely to move U.S. diesel prices - FreightWaves-4.4%
• Jun 25, 2025Market Talk | Energy Markets Stabilize as Ceasefire Holds and Risk Premiums Fade+1.5%