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European UAN 32% fob Baltic rose $60/mt week over week to $340/mt, and ammonia production costs climbed to about $740/mt as Northwest European gas prices topped Eur60/MWh, the highest since January 2023. Russian sanctions and freight disruptions added to supply constraints across Eastern and Western Europe.
Higher gas and ammonia costs lift the floor under nitrogen fertilizer prices, reinforcing the cost pressure on crop input markets and supporting grain prices through higher production costs.
spglobal.comAnais DolanMar 9, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
