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Refining margins in the US, northwest Europe and Asia have reached two-year highs as gasoline and diesel markets tighten. Causes include refinery closures, maintenance, outages, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian product exports, with the EU ban on products from Russian crude due January 21.
Tight product markets support refinery runs and diesel prices, partly offsetting the crude glut outlook that would otherwise pressure crude benchmarks.
oilprice.comTsvetana ParaskovaNov 20, 2025After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
