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Oil prices swung in recent days, lifted by Middle East tensions with Iran and pressured by fears from the US-China trade war. The article cites reports that the Trump administration sought to avoid war while the National Security Council drew up escalation options.
Sanctions and naval deployments in the Persian Gulf have raised the risk of miscalculation.
Persian Gulf military risk adds a geopolitical premium to crude, while trade-war fears cap it, so direction depends on which factor dominates and feeds into energy-linked input costs.
oilprice.comNick CunninghamMay 19, 2019After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
