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The joint US and Israeli attack on Iran rippled through global fertilizer markets, with the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 25% of traded nitrogen fertilizer, facing potential closure. President Trump said the DFC would offer political risk insurance for maritime trade and that the US Navy could escort tankers if necessary.
Potential disruption to a major nitrogen export route, plus crude oil rallying, supports higher fertilizer and energy costs that feed into feed-grain production expenses.
agweb.comMar 3, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Potential Hormuz closure threatens about 25% of traded nitrogen, creating a supply-risk premium in urea.
Published March 3, after the move date, but describes the same Hormuz risk (about 25% of traded nitrogen) that likely drove pricing on March 2.
