Fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered sharp losses in global equities and a rally in bonds. Oil rose toward $95 for March WTI, U.S. natural gas gained 5%, and European gas rose nearly 10%.
The yen and Swiss franc firmed while Antipodean and Scandinavian currencies fell.
Surging European and U.S. gas prices and crude above $90 raise fertilizer, ethanol and processing costs, which feed through to feed prices.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.