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Chicago soybean oil rose to 67.3 cents per pound in the week ending March 13, extending its rally. Disruption to global diesel supply from the Middle East conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz lifted heating oil to its highest since June 2022.
Higher diesel prices widen renewable diesel margins and boost demand for soybean oil feedstock, supporting vegetable oil prices. The rally depends on whether Hormuz disruption persists.
fastmarkets.comJoao MorcianiMar 17, 2026After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
On Mar 17 heating oil hit its highest since June 2022 on Middle East diesel supply disruption, which directly confirms the diesel rally in the window.
Heating oil hit its highest since June 2022 in the week ending March 13 on Middle East diesel supply disruption, directly confirming the ULSD move in the window.
