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ICE canola futures reached 10-month highs in the week ended April 29, as crude oil rose about 16% amid little progress toward ending the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed. Chicago soyoil and canola each gained about 4%.
Crush margins in both the US and Canada are near record levels.
Higher crude raises biodiesel profitability, lifting soyoil and canola through the energy link. Prolonged Hormuz disruption keeps vegetable oil prices supported.
farmtario.comPhil Franz-WarkentinApr 29, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
