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Oil posted its first monthly gain since September, with U.S. crude and Brent up about 6% in January. Prices fell on the final day after China's factory activity contracted for a fourth month and the Fed signaled no near-term rate cuts, while U.S. and Iran tensions escalated.
Monthly gains reflect Middle East supply risk, but weak Chinese manufacturing limits demand growth. Energy costs remain a factor in feed production and freight economics.
cnbc.comSpencer KimballJan 31, 2024After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
