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November soybeans rose 7.25 cents to $13.78, their highest close since February, after Russia suspended its participation in the Black Sea grain deal. June NOPA crush came in at 165.0 million bushels, below the 170.6 million expected, and soyoil stocks fell to a seven-month low.
August soymeal rallied to $434.4.
Black Sea tension lifts grain and oilseed values, and the crush miss plus low soyoil stocks tighten the oil side. Meal gained on implied tightness, supporting feed costs.
agweb.comPro Farmer EditorsJul 17, 2023After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 34 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +3.5%), and +1.2% over 20.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
