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NYMEX ULSD front-month futures peaked at $3.5755 per gallon, the highest since January 2023, and ICE gasoil reached its highest since October 2022. Refiners in Asia cut runs and cancelled exports as Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic stalled, removing roughly 5 million bpd of refined product supply.
Lost Middle East diesel and jet supply tightens global distillate markets and raises freight and fertilizer-related costs for feed producers, while energy strength supports biofuel feedstock prices.
dtnpf.comKarim Bastati DTN AnalystMar 5, 2026After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Diesel and gasoil futures hitting multi-year highs on 2026-03-05 raise biodiesel and renewable diesel economics, strengthening palm oil as an energy-linked vegetable oil on the day before the move.
Hormuz tanker stalls removing about 5 mbpd of refined product supply pushed ULSD to 3-year highs, reinforcing crude strength on March 5.
Diesel and gasoil futures hit multi-year highs on March 5, raising the biodiesel substitution appeal of palm oil and supporting prices.
Products tightness from stalled Hormuz tanker traffic, with ULSD at 3-year highs, reinforced crude strength heading into March 6.
