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Malaysian palm oil futures closed up 3.9 percent at a four-month high on July 20, 2023. Russia said ships heading to Ukrainian Black Sea ports would be treated as possible military cargo carriers after the Black Sea grain corridor talks failed.
Collapse of the Black Sea grain corridor raises shipping risk and supply uncertainty, supporting vegetable oil prices and feed costs.
spglobal.comJul 20, 2023spglobal.comAditya Kondalamahanty, Nurul DarniJul 20, 2023After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 62 past bullish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median +2.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.1% to +5.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
