Grains edge higher as hopes for Black Sea ceasefire fade

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Apr 4, 2022Grains gain as peace hopes fade in Ukraine – The Seam-7.3%
• Oct 1, 2026Hunger on the Horizon: The New Black Sea Grain Crisis-2.9%
• Jun 15, 2022Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain | RAND-2.3%
• Jul 31, 2026Black Sea logistics crisis keeps grain markets on edge — Hectare Trading | The online marketplace for crops-1.0%
• Nov 27, 2018Chokepoint Blockade Exposes Supply Risk for Black Sea Grain+1.5%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Apr 4, 2022Grains gain as peace hopes fade in Ukraine – The Seam+5.4%
• Oct 1, 2026Hunger on the Horizon: The New Black Sea Grain Crisis-1.2%
• Jun 15, 2022Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain | RAND-1.6%
• Mar 11, 2022Analysis: Black Sea conflict may alter global trade patterns for grains, veg oil+2.7%
• Dec 1, 2020Chokepoint Blockade Exposes Supply Risk for Black Sea Grain | Feed & Grain-0.4%

After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.

• Apr 4, 2022Grains gain as peace hopes fade in Ukraine – The Seam+6.7%
• Jul 24, 2026Grains Markets Hit New Highs on Black Sea Attacks, Crude Oil Rally-4.9%
• Jul 16, 2026Wheat Soars as Black Sea Conflict Reshapes the Grain Markets | Agriculture of America+2.6%
• Jul 20, 2023Palm oil futures hit four-month high as Black Sea tensions escalate+3.7%
• May 5, 2023Black Sea tensions keep grain prices afloat-0.4%